玛巴洛沙韦治疗小儿流感的成本-效果分析

Cost-effectiveness analysis of mabaloxavir in the treatment of pediatric influenza

关键词:  玛巴洛沙韦  小儿流感  成本-效果分析  决策树模型

Key words:  mabaloxavir  pediatric influenza  cost-effectiveness analysis  decision tree model

摘要:

目的 评价玛巴洛沙韦治疗1-12岁小儿流感患者的经济性。方法 从中国卫生体系视角出发,基于一项玛巴洛沙韦Ⅲ期临床试验(NCT03629184)构建决策树模型,模拟玛巴洛沙韦和奥司他韦治疗小儿流感患者的治疗过程,模型循环周期为5d,研究时限为29d。采用成本-效果手段对增量成本-效果比(ICER)进行分析,并通过旋风图、蒙特卡洛模拟进行敏感性分析。结果 基础分析结果显示,与奥司他韦相比,玛巴洛沙韦的增量效果是0.018,增量成本为85.71元,ICER为4762.14元,以2023年人均可支配收入(39218元)作为基础分析的参考阈值看,ICER小于人均可支配收入的12.14%,属于优势方案。单因素分析结果显示玛巴洛沙韦和奥司他韦的成本影响较大,概率敏感性分析结果与基础分析一致。结论 与奥司他韦疗法相比,玛巴洛沙韦治疗1-12岁小儿流感患者的经济性更好。

Abstract:

AbSTRACT: Objective To evaluate the economics of mabaloxavir in the treatment of pediatric influenza patients aged 1-12 years Methods From the perspective of the Chinese health system, a decision tree model was constructed based on a phase III clinical trial of mabaloxavir (NCT03629184) to simulate the treatment process of mabaloxavir and oseltamivir in pediatric influenza patients. The model cycle was 5 days and the study time was 29 days. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) was analyzed by cost-effectiveness method, and the sensitivity was analyzed by cyclone map and Monte Carlo simulation.Results The results of basic analysis showed that compared with oseltamivir, the incremental effect of mabaloxavir was 0.018, the incremental cost was 85.71 yuan, and ICER was 4762.14 yuan. Taking the per capita disposable income in 2023 (39218 yuan) as the reference threshold for basic analysis, ICER was less than 12.14% of the per capita disposable income. It belongs to the advantageous scheme.The results of single factor analysis showed that the cost of mabaloxavir and oseltamivir was significantly affected, and the results of probabilistic sensitivity analysis were consistent with the basic analysis. Conclusion Compared with oseltamivir therapy, mabaloxavir is more economical in the treatment of pediatric influenza patients aged 1-12 years.